Tony O'Hagan - Academic pages

Short course: Expert Knowledge Elicitation with SHELF

This three-day course provides a complete training for eliciting expert knowledge in probabilistic form using the SHELF system. In addition to the basic ideas presented in the one-day Introduction to Elicitation course, this course goes into detail on how to set up and facilitate an elicitation workshop, with extensive practical advice and hands-on experience. No background knowledge is assumed beyond very basic appreciation of statistical methods.

Learning Objectives

At the end of the course, participants should:

• understand the subjective interpretation of probability that is important in most practical elicitations, and be able to assess simple subjective probabilities;
• be aware of the importance of psychology in elicitation, and know some of the most common sources of potential biases;
• be conversant with the SHELF system for organising and facilitating elicitation;
• understand the work flow of setting up a SHELF elicitation workshop;
• appreciate the importance of a well-researched and well-written evidence dossier;
• appreciate what the SHELF software can do, and have installed and practiced with it;
• understand the skills involved in facilitating a SHELF workshop.

Synopsis

• Day 1. This is similar to the one-day course Introduction to Elicitation, comprising 5 or 6 one-hour sessions with short exercises.
• Day 2. The second day prepares people to actually run elicitations. Talk sessions provide more in-depth material than the first day. The second day ends with a demonstration elicitation run by me, in which some participants play the role of experts.
• Day 3. This day is dedicated to hands-on training for both facilitators and recorders. Up to four elicitation exercises are conducted with participants acting as facilitators, recorders or experts. These exercises are based on practical examples in the area of interest of the course sponsors. They are carefully "scripted" to challenge participants and to bring out key lessons.