Tony O'Hagan - Consulting

Consultancy services

My expertise lies in the methodology and applications of Bayesian statistics.

Here are the areas in which I have recently been most active as a consultant.

• Health economics. Cost-effectiveness analysis, probabilistic sensitivity analysis, elicitation of expert beliefs, estimation of health-related utility measures.
• Elicitation. Eliciting expert knowledge about uncertain quantities, as a primary input to decision making.
• Design of drug development programmes. Bayesian design of individual trials, Bayesian clinical trial simulation, modelling and elicitation of expert knowledge, decision-support for drug development.
• Uncertainty in mechanistic models. Quantifying uncertainty in the predictions of models, calibration and data assimilation.
• Auditing. Bayesian methods to reduce audit sample sizes through incorporating non-sample information.
• Asset management planning. Estimation of investment need based on combining limited sample data with expert knowledge.

In all of the above topics, and many others, my methods are backed by numerous peer-reviewed articles in major journals. If you would like information about these, please contact me or browse my academic pages, using the buttons below. I do not simply apply off-the-shelf methods. Every consulting job is a challenge and many have led to the development of new methods that have been published and become the state of the art. I do not treat any of these ideas as intellectual property, but always seek to disseminate them through published articles. As a consultant, I am selling not just standard methods, not just innovative methods that I have developed myself, but my skills in tackling each new problem on its own merits, in order to solve it as completely and appropriately as possible. I can afford to give away my methods in published articles because I am always ahead in terms of extending them and developing new ones.