Probabilistic judgements e-learning
Elicitation requires experts to make probabilistic judgements, such as median and quartiles, that are difficult
and unfamiliar tasks for most experts. Training is always given in a SHELF workshop,
but it takes time for experts to understand the judgements required and to make them reliably.
The idea of the e-learning course
is for experts who will take part in a SHELF elicitation workshop to get exposure to the kinds of judgements
they will be required to make, before the workshop itself, and in a relaxed, self-paced way.
The development of the course was funded by a grant from the United States
Office of Naval Research for
the PCOD+ project
whose primary concern was the study of how human disuption, for instance from shipping or wind-farms,
affects marine mammals. The course therefore draws particularly on examples from that area, although it is
intended for experts from any discipline.
The screen designs and programming are the work of Grifo Multimedia srl.
Take the course
The e-learning course, entitled "Probabilistic Judgements for Expert Elicitation" is open for anyone to use.
You are free to take the course by following the links below for the five modules. If you stop in the middle
of a module, you will be asked when you start it again whether you wish to continue from where you left off.
It should take no more than two hours to complete the course.
Please tell us what you think of the course!
Another output of the PCOD+ project is a simple user guide
for the MATCH elicitation tool. In particular,
this guide shows how to use MATCH to see fitted distributions corresponding to judgements you have made in Module 4 of the course. Seeing the implications of your judgements in this way allows you to gain more experience and confidence in making
The course can easily be customised for experts in a specific discipline or for a specific organisation.
The main customisation task is to change the examples so that they are relevant to the intended audience.
If you are interested in creating a customised course, please email
Last updated: 20 December 2018
Maintained by: Tony O'Hagan