Tony O'Hagan - SHELF: the Sheffield Elicitation Framework

SHELF User Forum - Programme

Here is the programme for the first SHELF User Forum on Tuesday, 22nd January, 2019 in Hicks Building Lecture Theatre 3, University of Sheffield

11:00 Welcome
11:10 Nicky Best (GSK), "Using SHELF to support routine use of prior elicitation in a large pharmaceutical company"
11:50 John Paul Gosling (University of Leeds), "Adapting SHELF to deal with directional variables"
12:30 Lunch
13:15 Andy Hart (Consultant), "Who is RIO? and other questions"
13:55 Ian Jacob (HEOR Ltd), "A consultancy perspective on the challenges of delivering expert elicitation projects"
14:35 Discussion, "What next for SHELF?"
15:00 End

Nicky Best has given us the following abstract for her talk: "Within GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), we have adopted a structured approach to prior elicitation based on the SHELF elicitation framework, and routinely use this in conjunction with calculation of probability of success (assurance) of the next study(s) to inform internal decision making at key project milestones. In this presentation, I will share some of our experiences of setting up and embedding the prior elicitation initiative at GSK, and will cover some of the practical aspects of running an elicitation session, including training (both of facilitators and of experts), choice of elicitation methods, and development of bespoke software tools."

John Paul Gosling's abstract is "In a recent expert elicitation exercise, we were faced with eliciting beliefs about directional variables that were to be used in a computer simulator of ocean structures. We adapted the SHELF protocol to accommodate this type of parameter and were able to fit circular distributions to judgements during the elicitation workshop. In this talk, I will talk through the application and why transformations were not favoured, discuss the questioning strategy to capture the experts’ judgements and show the plots that we were producing in real-time for discussion in the workshop."

Last updated: 21 January 2019

Maintained by: Tony O'Hagan